2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Well, your ARSE correspondent will not be in Hobart for this year's 70th race so this will be a fairly uninformed thread compared with previous years.

WEATHER.

So far, nothing out of the box. Expect to hear plenty of nonsense about the "treacherous Bass Strait crossing" as winds pick up around Gabo Is. This, of course is mostly bunkum as the boats never actually enter Bass Strait. But the wooly stuff is coming and the open sea to the East of the Strait will definitely be affected by it. Expect some gear damage and probable retirements. Let's hope that's all.

The race is forecast to start in a 15kt southeasterly, increasing to 20-30 kts at sea and with significant levels of chop developing. This will affect the smaller boats unless it starts to get really rough. At the big end of the fleet, those with a good combination of righting moment (Loyal, Comanche, Ragamuffin) and penetration (Wild Oats XI) will have the advantage. It will be a question of who has their boat best prepared. You can probably expect 36 hours of the wind on the snotter. Don't expect to see speeds like we saw last year, when Loyal planed her way down the Tassie coast at average speeds exceeding 28 kts.

The upshot of all this is that it will be what we call "a small boat race". This means that the handicap honours (the real race) will probably go to a small boat, rather than a maxi. This is because the conditions will probably become more favourable as the race goes on so the big boats will already be in port when the smaller boats start getting into more favourable weather. That means the crews of the big boats get to sit in Hobart and watch as they drop further down the standings. Although last year had the potential to favour the maxis, it was eventually won by the Cookson 50 Victoire. The crew of this boat was basically that of Secret Men's Business 3.5 which won the race in 2011 but although they are a different crew this year, Darryl Hodgkinson will have a chance of repeating the feat if he plays his cards right. I would expect the winner to come from this part of the fleet.

A real roughie is Chutzpah (Bruce Taylor) from Victoria. Long overdue for a win and the weather conditions might just suit her.

BOATS.

The focus this year is on the new boat Comanche and two very heavily modified boats Ragamuffin and Rio 100.

Comanche comes from the drawing board of Guillaume Verdier/VPLP and this is her first major race, having been launched only a couple of months ago. This is a brute of a boat. Verdier is well known in IMOCA circles but is slowly moving into IRC, etc. He has plenty of experience designing to box rules with radical sail plans and technology like swing keels and water ballast but this is, as far as I am aware, his first shot at a maxi rater. The shape is very reminiscent of Juan Kouyoumdjian's Loyal and the VO70 class boats, such as Black Jack and Giacomo, which he also designed. It has an extremely broad, hard chine stern which will help both with planing and righting moment if they get a good cross wind happening but that seems unlikely. Owned by Netscape founder Jim Clark and his Australian wife, former supermodel, Kristy Hinze, it will be the one to watch simply because it is the newest boat. It was built in Maine by Hodgdon Yachts and is of a more conventional construction than say, Loyal, though it is more radical and has an even wider stern. The skipper, Ken Read, is one of the best in the business. He might even be the best. You can do chinups on what he says. Comanche have managed to lasso American navigator Stan Honey back from Loyal after last year's race and they have three or four Australians floating about among their crew. They will be a factor in Line Honours as long as they stay in one piece. A combination of a top crew and Verdier's IMOCA experience will help there.

[youtube] [/youtube]

Ragamuffin 100 is the original "Paddy's Axe". This is so radically changed that it's almost a different boat from that which took like honours in 2011. What started out as a Greg Elliott design about ten years ago has had everything cut off below decks and an entirely new hull built underneath her. Designer Andy Dovell has also radically modified the deck and included water ballast. The boat only went back into the water a couple of months ago and is still an unknown quantity but IMHO, modifications like this are not often the way to go. We shall see. Ex-patriot American Dovell has included similar features to Comanche and Loyal like razor-sharp chines and twin rudders but she is a bit narrower, which may help in the early stages of the race. Syd Fischer is now 87 years old and this will be his 47th Hobart. Among his crew is paralympic sailor Liesl Tesch ,who launched the boat.

[youtube] [/youtube]

The third of these new or recycled boats is Rio 100. This is the old Bakewell-White designed boat which has been going to Hobart for most of the last 11 years. Originally christened Zana, she became Konica Minolta and later Lahana. She missed last year's event and I admit I wondered why. Well, she was sold to an American owner Manouch Moshayedi, who literally had her cut in half and rebuilt from there by Cooksons in New Zealand. The back 50 feet and everything that went with it has gone and been replaced by a new stern with the expected hard chines and twin rudders. Another result is that she has been lengthened out from 98 to 100 feet. They also got rid of her water ballasting system and believe the boat now has much the same righting moment but weighs 6 or 7 tonnes less. I dunno. This boat just looks wrong to me, in much the same way that Wild Thing did. The sail plan just doesn't look right and I suspect the mast is too far forward. The boom looks too short. Experience with these new broad stern designs suggests that the extra flotation in the stern can be better utilised by pushing the mast further aft. This allows bigger and more powerful headsails without causing the bow or stern to mush down into the water. I could be wrong because pics of her sailing don't show any evidence of a problem.


Image

Wild Oats XI is back again for a shot at he 8th line honours win. The weather will decide what happens this year but the choppy conditions could suit "Old Skinny" better than some of the newer and modified designs. You may recall last year, they added some retractable wings to her hull, supposedly to improve her performance while planing. How much real difference this made is open to speculation. I'm not convinced they even used them and I have never seen photographs of them being used in anger. But if they can stop the bow from spearing into the wave in front, they can save a lot of trouble. Notwithstanding, she still managed to destroy two spinnakers under running conditions last year. This would be the exact problem these modifications should prevent. Skipper Mark Richards claims the wings improve controllability but doesn't elaborate any further. Over the winter they extended these wings by two metres but the performance actually decreased so they appear to have reverted to the old ones.

Still a hot prospect for line honours.

After last year's first tilt Loyal is back for a return match and hopefully she can realise a bit more of her potential. They took some weight out of her keel over the winter but she is still fundamentally the same. After becoming seriously ill last year, sailing master Michael Coxon is back on board, which will help considerably. Their performance in the early part of last year's race would have benefitted from his presence. You could see the boat looked a bit unsettled early on but they knuckled down, survived the bad weather and steamed into Hobart in very impressive style. I know I was impressed. IF the conditions suit, Loyal could end up fighting this out with Comanche. They are similar in concept and I suspect, similar in performance. Despite being six years older than Comanche, Loyal still has a few tricks up her sleeve and some design features which give her some advantages.

Not my first pick for line honours be she'll still be in it.

The VO70s, Black Jack and Giacomo will fight it out again this year and will be at a considerable advantage should the weather turn nasty. With the passing of her namesake this year Black Jack will have a point to make. Her performance after blowing her main last year was very impressive.
Last edited by J.D. on Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:48 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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I've been waiting for this, Thanks.

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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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My pleasure mate. Hope it helps.

My money is on the middle of the fleet. Anywhere between 40 and 55 feet.

For line honours, it's hard to say. We'll know more after the first night. Probably Wild Oats again but it's by no means certain. The race seems to suit her design more than any other, principally because it's a passage race, rather than an out-and-back like the Fatsnet.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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cheers JD. A good read.

I am heading to Hobart on the 1st. I don't think I have ever been in Hobart across the xmas/new year period before so will be keen to check out a yacht or 2 :up:
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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So where will you be this year JD?
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Home.

Still recuperating from my PRP injection a few weeks ago.

The sharp eyed among you will notice Comanche's retractable prop in this:

[youtube] [/youtube]

Unlike most other boats, Comanche's entire drive system - the propeller, the driveshaft and the support - are all retracted into the hull and faired off. The unusual hull lines are noteworthy too, especially forward.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Some technical analysis of the big boats:

http://chevaliertaglang.blogspot.fr/201 ... -race.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So Rio100 doesn't have a canting keel? That explains one thing.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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So if Wild Oats was for sale, what would be the going rate?


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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Don't know. I'd be interested to see how she'd go against boat like Loyal and Comanche in thinks like the Transat. That's what Comanche was built for.

That's a mad start! A couple over early, I reckon.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Ricko's right; they won't carry it.

Ken Read calling for a reef.

Ricko calling for a reef.

Quote of the day so far; "Look at that thing go" - Mark Richards.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Wild Oats going for height, Comanche going for speed.

That's the advantage of the narrow boat but it has to be balanced against what we call VMG (Velocity Made Good). In some conditions it's best to try to sail as close to the wind as you can but in others it's better to crack the sheets a bit and go for speed. The question is which will get you there first.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Interesting to see Loyal go inshore and make up a lot of ground on Ragamuffin. They rounded the sea mark behind Rags and tacked to go inshore. When they tacked out again they were well ahead.

Comanche has just smoked away. She'll need all she can get out of it because the wind is now predicted to drop out tonight which will favour Wild Oats XI.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Keep an eye on the race with the yacht tracker:

http://rolexsydneyhobart.com/tracker/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Bauer wrote:So if Wild Oats was for sale, what would be the going rate?
I'll come back to this and the answer is I don't know.

With boats like these there really isn't any sort of benchmark, so it'll go for whatever someone is prepared to pay for her and that is entirely predicated on her performance (hence my earlier remark). The problem is that she's a nine year-old boat now and although she's had a lot of work done to keep her competitive, IMHO, there's little doubt she's out-designed now. Another problem is that if someone wanted to do to her what has been done to some of the other boats, they would have far less scope because she's so skinny. The problem isn't in her stern either - that would be just sawn off and scrapped - it's near the mast and ahead of it where there just isn't any volume. This is why the foils were added because, unlike Loyal or Comanche, she has a very small chest ahead of the keel. Such radical changes also change volumetric effect and prismatic coefficient and make the boat essentially a brand new design. IMHO, it would be next to impossible.

The rumour was that Loyal in her wrecked state, was bought for a million dollars and had another 7 million spent on her. But her performance potential was deemed better than that of Wild Oats at the time. The flipside is that Oats has an enviable record and isn't a wreck.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Five hours in and it's a slightly different picture from what I was expecting but a rather more exciting one.

Loyal is presently 4 nm south of Kiama and holding a handy 3 nm lead over Comanche. I have been impressed by her speed so far, especially against Comanche. They have stayed in close to shore - probably not more than a mile out at times and they have not missed out on wind, which clearly the others are chasing. The advantage of staying inshore is that you usually get smoother water. The disadvantage is that you can find yourself in a wind hole with no way out. The surprise for me has been the speed of Ragamuffin and I reckon she will be well positioned in the morning after the wind drops out. She's wider than Wild Oats XI and narrower than the other two maxis but she's also lighter and has been faster through the day so far. I think she will be well placed tomorrow. Who would have thought Oats would be 4th on line honours? She's going well though and there's time for her to do more, especially overnight.

Comanche has been interesting to watch. She seems remarkably well balanced. Her bow doesn't bury itself often and her stern doesn't look like it's mushing down either. When she's heeling hard there's very little of her in the water.

Mind you, this is very early days and they have a lot of racing ahead of them.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Well, they went too far. Loyal sailed into a hole near Jervis Bay and Comanche and Wild Oats pounced.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Loyal looks to be a retirement. As of 8:45 this morning she was heading back to Sydney. No idea what the problem is.

Roger Hickman's Wild Rose is currently the handicap leader but this is far from decided. The 29 year-old Farr 43 is the original Wild Oats which Bob Oatley campaigned in the Admiral's Cup in the 1980s. Always a threat, they nearly won on handicap last year but the stunning performance of Victoire meant that Wild Rose was still at sea when the wind dropped out and the result decided.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Hum, they where 4 boats back when I was looking last night.

'12 Oats is smashing it atm.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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That's because it went light. I predicted that Oats would have the advantage in light air and that is what will continue until at least midday. In fact, I'm a bit surprised the lead didn't change overnight.

Watch the wind to the west of Bass Strait. That will decide the result. If it comes in the way it is expected to, Comanche will be very hard to stop. It will be like yesterday in Sydney Harbour. Also keep an eye on Black Jack and Giacomo. VO70s don't like beating, as they have been doing for most of the last 24 hours. If the wind does what it is expected to do - go west - they will be very fast.

This is as of 10:30 today:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This could be the turning point because I reckon they're about to take off. If the wind goes west and freshens, they could easily be on the Tassie coast by sundown.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Latest report from Loyal is that she hit something at about 9:00pm last night. That would explain her lack of progress.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Ah, I had a look around 11pm.

While they might close fast, it should not be enough to catch '12 Oats, atm going 22.6 knots, with the closest 2 going 12.3 and 8.3 knots.

Though last night it Oats XI and Comanche where having a tussle, blocking the wind and the like slowing them down.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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I think Comanche has a problem. It's like they're dragging a drogue behind them. They should be going at least as fast as Oats in those conditions. But brand new boat and all that...
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Starting to see some interesting developments in the handicap race. Patrice, One Sails Racing, Wild Rose and Chutzpah are all in the top ten as a northerly kicks in on the NSW coast.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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Oats XI leading Comanche by 40nm and both going 18kt... 3rd is going to be a close one.
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Re: 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart

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This is a very strange situation. I can only think Comanche has some kind of problem but maybe not. Wild Oats have sailed an amazing race and seen off all comers. I thought they'd probably be the best bet but I didn't think it would be like this. It's almost like they've found their own private wind and Comanche have missed out all day. Silly as it sounds, these things really do happen, particularly in light airs. I've seen it.

The surprise packet for me is Rio100 which has shown some good mid-course speed and has now overtaken Ragamuffin100 for third on Line Honours. She might be very light but from the pics I posted earlier, she looks so under-canvassed it's hard to believe she'd have any chance at all. They have sailed her very well.

Wild Rose is back at the top of the handicap table. I don't mind that people can keep on racing old boats. They're a big investment and owners of old boats should be entitled to a chance like anyone else. That's why you have a handicap. I just think some of the grandfather rules need to be looked at more closely. We had a similar problem with an old S&S 34 at my club for years. I'm still hanging out for Bruce Taylor and Chutzpah. This is his 34th attempt. He's a great sailor and has an excellent crew but luck always seems to desert him in the Sydney Hobart. I think this is his seventh boat of that name. He sold one a few years back which went on to win a few years later. That'd leave a bad taste in your mouth...

Also looking good is the old Black Jack, now known as Alive. This Tasmanian-based Reichel Pugh 66 recently demolished the record for the 1900 nm race from Melbourne to Vanuatu (did it in 6 days...) and is currently ahead of the new Black Jack and the new Ichi Ban. The Reichel Pugh design office seems to have a bit of a mortgage on this race. Their long, narrow hulls just seem well suited to it in recent years. On the other hand, they are better in light weather and the Sydney Hobart is not usually light. Last year was only heavy for a few ours on the second day and everything else was light.

Two boats are under investigation for allegedly failing to comply with sailing instructions. The alleged infringement relates to radio calls which are required to be made in the vicinity of Gabo Island. It is a rule which was brought in after the 1998 Hobart and was the subject of a race committee protest against Wild Oats XI and Rán a few years ago. Both of those protests were dismissed. The incidents this year don't relate to any of the more prominent boats.
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