2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Well, I suppose it was inevitable that I'd feel the urge to write something about this. Frankly, the opener on Sydney Harbour was a cracker but there are boats for whom little is going to plan.

So here's J.D's (belated) form guide.

1) Wild Oats XI; the perennial champ and last year's line honours winner. She has become the proverbial "Paddy's axe" of yacht racing, with ever changing sail plans and appendages. The truth dawned on everyone last year when newcomer Comanche stormed out of Sydney Harbour in record time, leaving the champ in her wake. After the race, a slightly stunned skipper, Mark Richards, told the Oatley family that for the boat to remain competitive, it would need to be completely rebuilt. In a sort of cut and paste exercise, 11 metres was cut off her bow in the off season and replaced with a longer, fuller bow section which was designed to stop her bows from ploughing into the back of the wave in front. To compensate for this and to keep the length within the 100 foot limit, two metres was sawn off the stern. This had the effect of moving the mast further aft and vastly increasing the fore triangle, allowing for bigger headsails and much bigger spinnakers. This has probably been accommodated by adding a fin forward of the keel but I have not heard anything. The boat has also shed something like 500 kg in dry weight.

While Richards claims it has improved the boat on all points of sail and while it is clearly influenced by boats like Comanche, Loyal and Rambler 88, Oats is actually not like those boats and never will be. The issue is that her fore triangle has only a narrow, curved stern to stabilise her and I suspect she will be prone to broaching to leeward. Not what you want. That said, she was pretty impressive in the SOLAS Big Boat Series on Sydney Harbour. The ocean will be a different story.

2) Comanche; this boat, which so impressed everyone when she ran away from Oats in the early stages of last year's race, has been a stand out in ocean racing over the last 12 months. During a Trans-Atlantic race this year, she set a new 24 hour passage record for a monohull, covering 618 nautical miles at an average speed of 25.75 kts. She took line honours in the Fastnet race but was overshadowed by Rambler 88 of which more later. She was only beaten by Wild Oats by 24 minutes in last year's race and all this despite it being her being fresh out of the box. Owners Jim Clark and his Australian wife, former supermodel Kristy Hinze-Clark, have made it their goal to break any record which can be broken. They were not expected to turn up for this year's event but the stars seemed to have lined up. Kristy is on the boat for Hobart after pulling out at the last minute last year to allow a better-credentialled sailor aboard.

The boat is an extrapolation of the IMOCA 60 boats and was designed by the VPLP-Verdier office. Skipper Ken Read described the design process as one where they kept moving the mast further aft. The further they moved it, the faster the boat went. Her biggest disadvantage last year was her enormous stern, which created a lot of drag in light air, thus allowing Oats to get away. Herein lies the influence behind Oats' extensive rebuild.

3) Ragamuffin 100; another example of "Paddy'd Axe", Rags had her stern chopped off and remodelled a couple of years ago and the boat is significantly faster now than she was when she raced as Loyal a few years ago. She is still remembered for beating Wild Oats XI in a tacking duel in light air in the Derwent in 2011. The original Greg Elliott design stops at the mast and I believe the rest was done by Andy Dovell, a Sydney-based American of considerable talent. The problem for Rags is that she lacks the resources of a lot of others. Her crew is good though. Skipper David Witt is well known in 18 footers and 88 year-old Syd Fischer, who is sailing in his 47 th race, is well known to everyone in sailing. He used to be called "Syd Vicious" by both friend and foe but he has mellowed somewhat over the years.

4) Loyal is back for another shot after being forced to retire from last year's event after hitting a submerged object. Something of a transition design between Oats and Comanche, she is just starting to show her age a bit but is still an extremely competitive boat with a lot of good years ahead of her. Leading the charge with some current design trends, like wide sterns and hard chines, Loyal has yet to really show her best and should go reasonably well if the conditions are right. She is certainly a potential line honours winner. Her rebuild from a couple of years ago was described in a previous thread about the race. I think it was 2012.

In any case, if the wind gets up and the others start breaking, Loyal should be in pretty good shape for a place. She's easily fast enough to break any record but that's not up for grabs this year. My sentimental favourite but not the likely winner.

5) Rambler 88; this is Geroge David's new Juan Kouyoumdjian-designed 88 footer. She signals Juan K's return to blue water yacht design after a long period in the wilderness. When David's previous maxi Rambler 100's keel fell of in the Fastnet Race 5 years ago, people started looking at him funny. Then a boat called Chiminees Poujoulat broke in half in wild seas off the Western approaches a couple of years ago and suddenly, the man who had been the most successful designer of Volvo Open 70 yachts was persona non grata. His reputation was considerably damaged, especially by some of the internet cognoscenti (some of whom I could name but won't) and ultimately it nearly cost him his career. He had to close his office and let most of his staff go. Fortunately, the Chiminees Poujoulat incident showed that it was not his fault but a repair fault and after the recovery of Rambler 100's keel, he was again cleared. Rambler 100 is now known to us as Loyal and Juan K's cooperation with Andy Dovell allowed the boat to race again.

Her best showing so far was in this year's Fastnet race when she finished second only to Comanche, in what were apparently light and fluky conditions. But the most significant point about that race was that after several days and over 600 nautical miles, the two boats were only about four minutes apart. That gave Rambler 88 - 12 feet shorter than Comanche - an easy handicap win. Skippered this year by New Zealand's America's Cup veteran Brad Butterworth, she will definitely be one to watch.

Opening stages

Oats got the best start in a Nor' Easter and easily had better boatspeed up the Harbour than her rivals. Starting at the Western end of the line, she was so far ahead at the start, she was able to cross everyone else on port tack. But that didn't hold for long and Comanche, who had gone for the middle of the line, caught her up fairly quickly. Oats maintained her lead and was heading out on starboard when she came across Loyal, who had taken a flyer by going deep on the eastern side and Richards realised how precarious his position was. Tacking back, Oats found herself behind Comanche's stern. But that wasn't all. Showing her true potential in the right conditions, Loyal beat them all to the turning mark and rocketed off with Comanche in hot pursuit. The American boat's speed on this point of sail was simply staggering and even with the pace Loyal had on, she sailed straight over the top of her. Comanche went around the sea mark and Read ordered the biggest kite they had and started to build an enormous lead over Loyal, Wild Oats XI, Rambler 88 and Ragamuffin. As Oats had started with a reef in the main, Richards ordered it taken out but his timing was not good. Everyone had been faster on the reach to the seaward mark. Still, better late than never. Things went from top to bottom for Loyal. Her first attempt to launch a spinnaker resulted in it being only partially deployed, which is way worse than not at all. After a lot of messing around, the crew pulled it down again and tried another with the same result. Poor old Loyal was going backwards and now found herself in the clutches of Black Jack, which was revelling in the conditions she was optimised for.

The weather basically dictated that the boats which went east of the rhumb line and out to sea would probably do better. At this stage I'd suggest that most will try a great circle run if they can manage it. The southerly buster has come in and some are reporting gusts of up to 50 kts.

Latest news RSHYR media announced the retirement of Wild Oats XI at about 11:00 PM AEST, citing a torn mainsail.

*EDIT*

As at midnight, it looks as if Comanche may also have retired. The tracker shows her going in the wrong direction. Loyal appears to be doing the same thing. :(

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/tracker/

I'll talk about handicap tomorrow.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by mrleisure »

Thanks for all the info J.D. :yes: . The start and the run out of the harbour were awesome . Looks like Comanche is still in it , maybe with some damage though .
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

No worries mate! Always a pleasure to write stuff for people who appreciate it (and I know even Richo reads it...:D).

There have been some interesting developments overnight, especially with the retirements of Wild Oats XI and Loyal. Not sure what Loyal's problem was. Comanche had a hard time of it and has offered some rudder damage which handed the lead to Rambler 88. Comanche's crew appear to have fixed their problem and are now slowly but surely clawing their way back to the line honours lead. So far though, the best performances have come from some of the other boats. Rambler 88, with 12 feet less waterline length, has been something of a giant killer so far. Others who have been impressive are Maserati and the sentimental favourite, for this forum at least, Black Jack. These two VO70s will be handling the rougher conditions better than their rivals but the only problem for them is that the wind is virtually on the nose. If it goes even a little bit West their chances will improve significantly. In the meantime they have held their own very well. Another boat which has impressed me is Chinese Whisper, the JV62 formerly known as Jethou during her illustrious European career. She was tipped as a potential winner early on but I'm not convinced it will work out.

I think this will end up being "a small boat race" once the conditions moderate and the wind changes direction a bit. What I mean by this is that the big boats will arrive in Hobart having done almost all of the race into the wind, while the smaller boats, being at sea a lot longer, will have done more of the race on more favourable points of sail, registering higher numbers and giving them handicap advantages.

What is also interesting is that it is only about now that the lead boats have been caught by Wild Oats XI's 2012 record time and we have been going almost 24 hours. 2012 was a bit different because the conditions down the NSW coast were tricky but manageable and it was only after they passed Gabo Island that they got favourable winds. I would expect the first super maxis to be in Hobart mid afternoon or early evening tomorrow. You'd have to think that sooner or later in a future event prevailing winds will come out of the north west, then swing to the north east during the race and it will be all over on the 27th. An elapsed time of 24 hours is entirely possible for a lot of these boats, even the VO70s.

A distress beacon has gone off east of Narooma. I don't know who it is but hopefully it's not too serious.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/news/2 ... -its-head/

Ouch, I knew the wind changed.. but still.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Yeah, they got hit. But to be honest, this is standard for ocean racing. 50 kts is hideous but it's what happens out there. We have been a bit spoilt over the last decade with relatively benign conditions, though 2012 was wild for a short time. It's funny how misleading this (Sydney) obsession with Bass Strait is. Even last year when it was relatively light, no boats actually entered the Strait and they never do. This year, with heavier winds, they are around 50 miles east of it. I have tried over the years to fix this but the race site now effectively owns the space so wrong is now right... The critical part of the Sydney Hobart is almost invariably the NSW south coast. Except for years like 1998, this has been where most boats have hit trouble. Even in '98, that part of the course accounted for a lot of retirements.

Anyhow, since my last post, two interesting developments. Firstly and most importantly, that distress beacon turned out to be accidental and everyone on that boat is safe and accounted for. Secondly, Comanche has regained her lead and is still powering along at 14 kts in a direct southerly. What is also interesting is that she is not really very far behind where Oats was in 2012. This is amazing considering she is beating and having to tack, whereas in 2012, Oats was surfing at speeds up to 35 kts (and blowing out spinnakers on the way). I'm still really impressed with Rambler 88. While credit must go to the crew for keeping her in one piece overnight, sooner or later people are going to realise that Juan Kouyoumdjan is still an extremely talented designer and that the investigations into the misfortunes that befell several of his boats exonerated him. Hopefully this will signal a resurgence for him. His designs have been the most exciting and influential of the last 20 years.

Current leader on handicap is Maserati, another Juan K. design. Shows how well the old VO70s can perform in tougher conditions. Soldini is a pretty smart sailor too.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by Dr. Pain »

I was going to say they never go into Bass strait. Surely these boats can handle these conditions? Or are they a bit more fragile JD? I don't know much about sailing other than J-Class yacht's are gorgeous.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

Done a few loops around King island and back, around this time of year. Weather was fine and with little crests, in a 40 foot sailing yacht.

Was rather fun.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by c.j »

Good little write up JD. I know sweet feck all about sailing but it's interesting none the less.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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Dr. Pain wrote:I was going to say they never go into Bass strait. Surely these boats can handle these conditions? Or are they a bit more fragile JD? I don't know much about sailing other than J-Class yacht's are gorgeous.
Yes and no. They can handle the conditions but this is a race and they are being pushed hard. That means that components are necessarily under more stress than normal. They are designed to take it but even on the sturdiest boats - like the one I sail on - things fail from time to time. All boats are thoroughly checked over by careful owners and crews before a race like this (and don't forget the trip home either). Nobody is going to stake their life on anything which looks remotely dodgy. Ironically, while I'd like the try a J-Class one day, I know they are dangerous. Any boat which has sheet loads like that can only be dangerous. I used to sail on an old 12 Metre (Kookaburra) and though I enjoyed it, that was pretty dangerous boat. It didn't have lifelines for a start but the main concern I had was simply the loads on the components which are just monstrous. It's partly a function of displacement and partly beam.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Despite reports that the boats are minutes apart, Comanche looks set to take line honours. She is currently 16 nm ahead of Rambler 88.

There's a very complex weather system building in Bass Strait with some light northerlies.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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This is where things are going to start getting potentially interesting from a handicap point of view. Now that the worst of the weather has passed, there is a chance that the smaller boats will find themselves in favourable winds from the west or north west. This will give them higher boat speeds than what they've been able to do up to now and potentially lower their corrected times. You go much faster on a reach than on a beat and you don't have to tack. This is why I'm saying it could be "a small boat race". The big boats will probably get in before the wind changes. Of course, there is a strong possibility it could go light, which won't help anyone.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

Ha, out come the oars and row row row.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Well, if they all get stuck out there it will be "a big boat race" instead...

Comanche finished at about 10 pm. They must be stoked.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Wow. Rags got up by four minutes. The Rambler 88 guys must be shattered. They sailed really well.

Comanche's performance was amazing. To win by that much in that weather and with damage... Apparently they broke a daggerboard and when they decided to jettison it, it almost took the rudder off.

Meanwhile, here's a vid of the mods done to Wild Oats XI:



I reckon they've stuffed it. Time will tell.

This boat was never supposed to be like this. You can't make a long narrow boat into a long wide boat by doing stuff like that. Boats like Comanche, Rambler 88 and Loyal are all designed that way from the ground up. I think they were hoping to get the same performance without sacrificing the shape which the Sydney-Hobart seems to have favoured. The problem is tracking ability. I would hate to try to trim or steer that thing. It would be all over the place. The Reichel-Pugh guys must have really been scratching their heads trying to figure the best way to do it. What the other boats have is hard chines, which would help to maintain a level of directional stability by making a V in the water. Oats has rounded bilges which (and I know this because I was a Laser sailor) don't always track well.

Kristy looked a bit wobbly on the dock. Can't say I blame her... Ah well, good on her for doing it.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

Looks like a Swiss yacht, Teasing Machine, is going to get the overall win:

http://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/the-ya ... g-machine/

They have been right in it for days.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

With the video, ouch that would of cost a few.. but nothing is cheap on these things, but with the original builders, they would of had all the drawings to work off.

Nice to see a smaller boat get up there.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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Well, Reichel Pugh, who did the original design, would have worked off their original drawings. All they had to do was design the new bow and send the drawings to McConachy's. I understand one of them, not sure if it was John Reichel or Jim Pugh, came out here to oversee it. That would be standard for a customer like the Oatleys.

Looks like Balance, owned and skippered by former TV presenter Paul Clitheroe, is going to win it. I have to say they sailed really well. I'm pretty sure that was his first attempt in that new boat. He used to have a Beneteau of the same name but the new boat is a TP52. It would have been a handful.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by J.D. »

The question is "did they or didn't they?"...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-29/c ... ed/7058476
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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TP52 Balance has been conformed as the winner.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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Have a look at this. Rags doing the business in last year's event:

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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

That is not slow indeed.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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At about 45 seconds you see the log hit 33.5 kts which is 62 km/h. 38 kts is over 70 km/h. Remember; this thing is 100 feet long...

From about 4:20, the boat gets noticeably faster and the wash over the deck is noticeably worse. People forget that sailing is actually classified as an extreme sport which has implications for things like personal insurance...

The hardest thing is explaining to people that the wind is only about 25 kts, judging from the sea state. These things generate so much wind that what would be a broad reach at say 15 kts for most boats becomes a blast reach at 30+.

I had a think about this. The line honours time in this event was only about 14 hours slower than Oats in her 2012 record race. That was in very unfavourable conditions. One day conditions will be very favourable and someone is going to wipe about 12 hours off the current record. Yeah baby!
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

What was the person doing sitting in the middle of the boat? the one getting hit by the surf, just a good place to sit? or something else.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

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Well, judging from the dousing, I'd say it's not a good spot to sit. Anyhow, I don't know. Not doing anything I think.
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Re: 2015 Rolex Sydney-Hobart

Post by wobblysauce »

That is what I was thinking.. even watched it a few more times to see if I missed something.

Where do you normally occupy as a Camera person/Reporter on things like this?, maybe getting in the way and told to sit there.
Some play it safe on the merry-go-round, others go for the thrills of the roller-coaster.

ᕙ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ᕗ vs ლ(ಠ益ಠ)ლ

I have a joke for you. I have a prediction that you are going to walk into a bar, my prediction was wrong and your wallet is gone.
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