Brexit

[Johnny X]

I think that Durbs has got it pretty much spot on. A large proportion of the population feel neglected and having been given the opportunity to voice their concern have done so. Interesting times ahead, maybe now the government will start to do exactly that and stop acting like kids in the playground bickering amongst themselves and actually put a days graft in and try to do something about the crumbling infrastructure (Our "renowned" health service, diabolical transport, inept education system etc... etc..) of Not So Great Britain.

I voted Leave, not because of Farage (despicable racist) and Boris (upper class twit) or any of the others but because it's grim up North and it's time for a substantial change. The map of voting showed exactly why this has happened. Scotland and NI will struggle without being part of a "group", the only remaining remain area was a small yellow dot concentrated around London, the only place in the country that the "government" actually give a shit about.

Stiff upper lip chaps, chocks away....

[Vilante]

Snip....

Thanks for that Durbs, nice to hear from someone on the ground. All my English mates here are just livid so it's good to hear a balanced opinion.

[GXTracker]

Damnit you brits! Look what you've started; now our Quebec (province) sovereigntists are asking why 50% plus 1 allows for such a monumental decision for you but not for us here in Canada!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ ... -1.3651265

[Nigel]

Remember when we used to eat oranges.

[ysu]

1GB of space, that's really good.

But maybe they should have named it BrStay instead of BrExit...bad omen came through, huh?


WRT the population feeling neglected; that's everywhere. Democracy is not working. People aren't represented, majority isn't represented, it's a constant power struggle to be in the position where they can dole out money to their mates.

[Coopz]

A friend of mine who is 31 voted to leave. What tipped him over was waiting 30 months to have his knee operation last year. When he was in the theatre waiting area the other 5 patients sitting with him spoke hardly any English and were all from Poland and Spain. He just felt the country had sold him out by having foreign EU members having operations in his country while the local populace has to wait for ages.
I have no idea how the medical system works in the EU but the way he described it, it sounded very broken.

[wobblysauce]

..But maybe they should have named it BrStay instead of BrExit...bad omen came through, huh?..

Made from the small group that was pushing for the split.

[Montey]

I'm quite bemused by all the doom merchants making like Brexit is the end of all military, intelligence, economic, cultural, and other alliances; its like the UK has chosen to leave the planet and is going to splinter in to 4 different countries... here's a tip... it won't!

The UK will remain whole for a long while yet. Some in Scotland may use this as the opportunity to agitate for another referendum, but they won't get it. The British government has just been through a slightly embarrassing referendum and won't be in a hurry to do another one, additionally the English know they are better with Scotland in the union. From Scotland's perspective, even if a new independence referendum was held soon, the reasons for staying in the union are even stronger now than they were when the last one was lost. The Scottish will not establish a strong economy independent of England but within the EU, they would quickly become another Poland who's chief export is cheap labour.

The Brexit Leave vote does not mean that on Monday morning the UK is out of the EU. The process of leaving will take 6 to 24 months, during this time trade and defence agreements will be put in place between the UK and the EU, and between the UK and non-EU countries. These new agreements will almost all be 1-for-1 replacements of existing EU agreements meaning all existing arrangements will essentially continue. The only material difference will be that the UK gets to make its own decisions regarding such agreements and will only agree with treaty requirements if they work for the UK (rather than being compelled to accept what is decided in Brussels).

Give it 6 months and it will be quite evident that life will return to normal, that the Pound will return to existing values (because today's fundamentals are the same as they were yesterday, and will be the same in 18 months time), that trade will continue largely under existing terms, that defence arrangements will remain unchanged, and that the UK will still be whole.

Even this talk of people being deported is crap. The UK government will either transfer EU visas to an existing UK visa structure, or will create a special EU Citizen visa which will grant largely the same rights as EU citizens have today in the UK.

[norbs]

I bounced around a bit but ultimately voted to remain. The arguments to leave were a bit too Donald Trump for me, based on jingoism and bombast rather than sense, fact and strategy.

One of my main concerns is how weak the EU could be without us. This clearly devalues and weakens the whole project and maybe it will collapse entirely as other nations follow our lead. That's worrying, not just for economics but security too. I imagine Mr Putin is happy with the decision.

Cameron only agreed to a referendum to appease the Euro-sceptics in his party and undermine the more right-wing UKIP, and I'm absolutely convinced he only did so on the assumption it'd be quite an easy fight to win.

The thing I'm most annoyed by is that it happened at all. The illusion of the great Brussels bogeyman running and interfering with our lives has been seeded by the media for decades but I don't think the political class realised just how effective that had been. It was an image presented so often that we all knew the character of the EU, if not the reality. It was a handy scapegoat but ultimately not credible with investigation. We've run away from a demon that only really existed in the newspapers. I wonder who they'll blame next.

There are a few things I've taken from it.

First, is there is a massive - an absolutely huge - swathe of the country that does not feel represented politically (or even by the media), and I think this was their protest. It may not have been the wisest place to voice that but it's the only opportunity they had, given the political parties represent such a narrow view. For a democracy, that's not healthy and this is the consequence.

Personally I'm all for softening borders and division so if the ultimate EU aim really was/is to create a federal Europe, then I'm OK with that. Perhaps problem was it reached too far too quickly. Bringing in economic duds like Greece, provoking Russia, inviting Australia to the Eurovision song contest, all too bold and ill-considered. And it was all too threatening to the parents of my generation, who haven't had time to adjust to the multi-cultural, transgender, health and safety, liberal society they've found themselves living in, with no outlet for their voices.

With this and the horror show that is the US Presidential race, maybe the era of the world being ruled by English-speaking rich white guys is approaching its end. We're becoming outnumbered and increasingly divided, which is not a strong foundation on which to protect ourselves.

No idea what'll happen now. I imagine the reality will hit pretty soon as odd things suddenly becoming more expensive, but I'm not expecting total armageddon or for us to be invaded by dinosaurs.

That said, I'm not as worried as I was when I woke up and saw the news. I do think we're smart, inventive and creative enough to figure it out and find our new place. I'm pretty sure we've been through worse.

[Sarsippius]

I think Kev's right, for such important decisions surely it has to be a clear majority, 52 to 48 is more of an 'I don't know' than anything else.

[w00dsy]

[durbster]

There's a lot of assertion about a very uncertain situation there Montey. The truth is nobody knows what will happen next.

What I think will quickly become apparent is people will start to realise that the EU did not in fact dominate our lives, so things won't be dramatically different. I think the EU was more like the admin department than a supreme overlord, so now we just have to figure all that stuff out for ourselves.

And already it seems the mood has changed in a very British way. I saw a good quote yesterday:

If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime.

That's a bit premature, obviously and as Montey said, six months is probably about a realistic amount of time for the impact to be fully understood. Although the EU have stated they want us out asap, it seems unlikely it will officially happen in less than two years. They're dithering enough handling things they understand pretty well, so with no precedent this will take some time.

The Scottish first minister has already said it's "highly likely", they'll request a second Scottish independence referendum. I doubt there's a public appetite for that here but throughout Europe is another story. Some nations can't get out (due to imposed measures), but many can, so there is a real prospect of the EU collapsing altogether. Hopefully they'll learn from this though.

Yesterday people were very emotional (well, by British standards), but now it's sunk in we'll do what Brits do: assess the situation and then get on with making the best of it.

When it rains we don't cancel our barbecue; we just put a brolly up.

[Shaun]

[wobblysauce]

So.. wants to make it happen here?





Or this one as the theme song.. easier to remember.

[Johnny X]

Lol...

It's turning into a right royal bun fight here now. The major political parties are in disarray. The Leave campaign is being berated for not having a strategy for the exit... surely the Government should have had a Plan A or Plan B depending on the result. They obviously thought there wasn't a chance in hell of a Leave vote or they wouldn't have allowed a referendum in the first place. No wonder Cameron quit as soon as the result landed. If there is, somehow, another vote there will be chaos here.

Shambles.

[Enforcer-J]

What happens if they have a vote in Parliament and they decide "nah screw this bruz, it aint proper innit"?
As far as im aware, a referendum isnt binding, but is GB in bigger trouble if they overruled the peoples vote?

[Montey]

The worst thing that could happen would be for the UK parliament to reject the decision of the referendum. Whilst Referendum in the UK are non-binding on the government, the precedent it would set would likely outrage the populous and cause protests the like of which haven't been seen in decades.

The 2nd worst thing would be a 2nd referendum. Such an outcome would send a "we're in, we're out, we're in, we're out" message throughout the entire UK economy and would put all trade with the UK in a state of chaos. It would economically destroy the UK because business & trade partners wouldn't know what the rules will look like in 2, 5, & 10 years time.

The "establishment" government people were just too arrogant and assumed that the population would go with them. They are now having a mass panty wetting period as they look to take their bat and their ball and go home; they didn't make any contingency for a Leave vote and are throwing their arms about wildly whilst they have a tantrum.

This vote is not the big deal its being made out to be. The process of leaving the EU doesn't start until they submit a letter advising of the intention to leave. This letter then starts a period of up to 2 years to negotiate between the EU and the UK the terms of the departure (this will be to sort out trade, immigration, defense, and other treaties) and if 2 years isn't long enough the time can be extended by agreement. EU leaders are saying "the UK needs to do this quickly" but they don't actually have to do anything quickly, the EU agreement says that the process can take 2 years and be extended by agreement. The EU is just desperate to get it over quickly so they can try and prevent a mass exodus.

If the UK government wanted to make the departure quick they could pass legislation that says that they will abide by all existing EU statutes for a period of 5 years; that any new statutes will be debated by the UK government to consider similar compliance; and during the 5 year period the UK government will review all existing EU statutes and adopt its own similar legislation, modified to suit the UK. This would keep things operating "business as usual" for up to 5 years, and would allow a considered exit where most EU legislation would have the same effect in the UK with only specific things changed. (e.g. EU laws relating to foot pumps, yes this does exist, would be reflected in UK legislation; but the UK could enact its own immigration requirements).

Brexit really is not a cause for the mass hysteria currently being generated.

[wobblysauce]

That is it in a nut shell.

Though the Irish, Scotts and Welsh are all thinking about splitting and staying in the EU.

[Montey]

That is it in a nut shell.

Though the Irish, Scotts and Welsh are all thinking about splitting and staying in the EU.

They won't. It'd be like Tasmania splitting from Australia, it'd just be another Pacific island nation with rubbish terms of trade.

[Johnny X]

That is it in a nut shell.

Though the Irish, Scotts and Welsh are all thinking about splitting and staying in the EU.

The Scots have already been told that they will have to re-apply and re-negotiate their membership of the EU, it's not just a case of them staying in if they leave the UK.

The hype and the speculation continue over here. All that needs to happen is...



and, as Kenneth Clarke MP said on Newsnight, Westminster needs to knuckle down and get on with the serious business of government. Sadly, politicians aren't capable of doing that. Osborne (the Chancellor) has said that they will make good on their promises - just before he completes another "emergency" austerity budget no doubt.

It amazes me that scenes of EU funded projects are being shown with people saying that all these wonderful things are going to stop. As ourselves and Germany are the only net contributors to the EU in financial terms people need to wake up and realise that we have paid for these projects as well as other projects around the EU and that those funds can be used to continue investment as well as having a few sheckles left over to repair the broken Health Service, Transport system and infrastructure of the UK. All it needs now is for Andy Murray to get beat in the first round at Wimbledon, England to get beat by Iceland tonight and for it to rain all summer (pretty much guaranteed ) and they'll be jumping off the white cliffs of Dover in droves

[ysu]

Well, truth to be told, there are a few leeches attached to the EU's soft underbelly...

[Johnny X]

Sure there are.... Personally, I'm fed up of funding them and all for sorting out my own patch. May sound a little selfish, that's how it is for me.

[pixelboy]

Train up on international trade deals negotiations!!

There will be plenty of positions open very soon!

[norbs]

If this isnt just another FB hoax, I feel for these people.

[ysu]

Makes no sense to me. What sort of business could it be, I wonder ? Why would anyone stop ordering? Nothing has changed. I mean NOTHING as of yet.